不同还田方式下北方旱作小麦秸秆腐解规律研究

为揭示不同还田方式下北方旱作小麦秸秆腐解规律,以小麦秸秆为试验材料,采用尼龙网袋法,于2014-2015年度在山西临汾保护性耕作长期定位试验区进行试验,设置秸秆还田旋耕(SRT)、秸秆覆盖免耕(SNT)2个处理,分析不同耕作方式下小麦秸秆的纤维素、半纤维素、木质素、有机碳、全氮含量以及秸秆腐解率、有机碳矿化率、全氮释放率的变化。结果显示,经过375 d的田间腐解,SRT秸秆腐解率为50%,SNT秸秆腐解率为31%。SRT秸秆的纤维素、半纤维素、木质素的平均腐解率分别为65%、45%、53%,SNT分别为56%、30%、39%;SRT秸秆有机碳的矿化率为57%,SNT为40%;SRT秸秆全氮素释放率为15%,SNT为36%。研究表明,SRT可加快秸秆腐解与组成成分的分解,SNT有利于秸秆氮素的释放,可减少农田氮投入。SNT秸秆有机碳矿化率低可减少农田碳循环速率,提高麦田固碳能力。本研究结果对我国北方旱作小麦秸秆还田管理具有一定的借鉴参考价值。     

秸秆还田配施腐熟剂对砂性土壤性质及滴灌玉米生长的影响

为探究秸秆还田配施腐熟剂对宁夏扬黄灌区土壤改良和玉米增产的效应,在秸秆还田条件下施用3种不同腐熟剂[生物秸秆速腐剂(SR+BS)、EM菌秸秆腐熟剂(SR+RJ)、有机废物发酵菌曲(SR+OW)],以秸秆还田不施腐熟剂处理为对照(CK),研究其对秸秆生物失重率、砂性土壤理化性状和滴灌玉米生长及产量的影响。结果表明,3种腐熟剂均能有效促进玉米秸秆腐解,其中SR+RJ的秸秆腐解程度最佳,翻埋130 d后其秸秆生物失重率为49.9%,SR+OW和SR+BS次之,3种处理分别较CK显著提高7.1、5.7、5.2个百分点。SR+RJ对改善0~40 cm土层土壤容重效果最佳,较CK显著降低4.2%,同时显著提高了耕层土壤有机质和速效养分含量及生育中后期土壤贮水量,SR+OW和SR+BS次之。施用秸秆腐熟剂能明显促进玉米生育中后期植株生长,其中SR+RJ最佳。SR+RJ和SR+OW对玉米增产增收效果最明显,分别较CK显著增产26.9%、23.4%,显著增收28.8%、23.4%。可见,秸秆还田配施腐熟剂可有效促进玉米秸秆腐解,改善土壤理化性质,促进玉米生长发育,显著提高作物产量与经济效益,以EM菌秸秆腐熟剂效果最佳。本研究为宁夏扬黄灌区还田后促进秸秆腐熟和砂性土壤培肥及玉米高产提供了技术参考。     

控释氮肥对玉米秸秆腐解及潮土有机碳组分的影响

施肥影响秸秆还田效果,研究不同形态氮肥对秸秆腐解及土壤有机碳组分的影响可为秸秆还田下氮肥合理施用提供科学依据。以10年小麦-玉米轮作定位施肥试验为基础,采用尼龙网袋田间填埋法,研究了控释掺混尿素和普通尿素不同用量(纯氮120,240,360 kg/hm~2)对潮土中玉米秸秆腐解及土壤有机碳组分的影响。结果表明:与普通尿素相比,控释掺混尿素具有促进秸秆腐解的趋势;在秸秆腐解后期,控释掺混尿素处理较普通尿素显著促进了秸秆氮、磷的释放,而不同氮肥处理对秸秆中钾素的释放影响并不显著。在秸秆腐解后期,相同施氮量条件下,常规施氮量和增施氮量的控释掺混尿素处理较普通尿素显著增加土壤水溶性和热水溶性有机碳含量。在增加土壤微生物量碳、氮含量方面,在秸秆腐解的某些阶段控释掺混尿素处理的促进作用显著高于普通尿素处理。综合来看,与普通尿素相比,控释掺混尿素在秸秆腐解和增加土壤有机碳组分方面具有较好的促进作用。     

ECMWF细网格对浙江沿海10 m风预报性能评估

为更好地开展浙江沿海海上大风的预报服务,本研究对2012年1月1日—2014年12月31日的ECMWF细网格10 m风场产品在浙江沿海的预报性能进行评估,并将其插值到沿海站点和观测数据进行对比分析。结果表明:冷空气影响下,浙江沿海的平均误差为负值,绝对误差分布和变化趋势与平均误差基本一致;台风影响下,24 h预报时效的平均误差为正值,随着预报时效的增加,平均误差逐渐转为负值,鱼山渔场、温台渔场及舟外渔场的绝对误差较其他区域大。另外,预报值和观测数据间的相关系数随预报时效的增加而减小,两者之间的相关系数平均值随海拔高度的增加而减小;ECMWF细网格对岱山和龙山村的预报偏大,对浪岗的预报偏小,预报偏差的离散度随预报时效增加而增大。     

Research of dissolved oxygen prediction in recirculating aquaculture systems based on deep belief network

Recirculating aquaculture has received more and more attention because of its high efficiency of treatment and recycling of aquaculture wastewater. The content of dissolved oxygen is an important indicator of control in recirculating aquaculture, its content and dynamic changes have great impact on the healthy growth of fish. However, changes of dissolved oxygen content are affected by many factors, and there is an obvious time lag between control regulation and effects of dissolved oxygen. To ensure the aquaculture production safety, it is necessary to predict the dissolved oxygen content in advance. The prediction model based on deep belief network has been proposed in this paper to realize the dissolved oxygen content prediction. A variational mode decomposition (VMD) data processing method has been adopted to evaluate the original data space, it takes the data which has been decomposed by the VMD as the input of deep belief network (DBN) to realize the prediction. The VMD method can effectively separate and denoise the raw data, highlight the relations among data features, and effectively improve the quality of the neural network input. The proposed model can quickly and accurately predict the dissolved oxygen content in time series, and the prediction performance meets the needs of actual production. When compared with bagging, AdaBoost, decision tree and convolutional neural network, the VMD-DBN model produces higher prediction accuracy and stability.     

填闲作物腐解过程及其对后茬冬小麦产量的影响

研究了渭北旱塬地区不同填闲作物（长武怀豆（S）、黑麦草（R）及两者1∶1混合（M））翻压和氮肥水平（0、60、120 kg N·hm^-2）双因素处理下，填闲作物的腐解规律、碳氮释放动态及对后茬冬小麦产量的影响，并对腐解速率与Olsen模型进行了拟合。结果表明：各填闲作物翻压后腐解规律及碳氮释放特征均表现为“前期快-中期慢-后期加快”，填闲作物腐解规律符合Olsen模型，在第276天各处理累积腐解率均达70%以上。在第0~35天，同一施氮处理下，累积腐解率和腐解速率均表现为S>M>R（P<0.05）；第35天，S、M和R各处理干物质累积腐解率分别达到61.9%、55.5%和47.5%；在0~35 d，施氮对S、M的腐解影响不显著，对R影响显著，35 d后氮肥效应逐渐减弱；填闲作物的腐解同时伴随其碳、氮的快速释放，在第21天，S、M和R碳氮残留率分别达到40%、50%和60%左右。平均来看，S的碳氮释放速率显著高于R，与M无显著差异。与裸地对照相比，翻压填闲作物能够显著提高后茬冬小麦产量，其籽粒产量增加10%~35% （P<0.05），其中翻压长武怀豆低氮处理和混合翻压低氮处理效果最佳。     

不同施氮量对半干旱区还田玉米秸秆腐解及养分释放特征的影响

为了揭示还田玉米秸秆在不同施氮水平下的腐解及养分释放特征,在马铃薯田间定位试验中,设置了6个不同施氮水平(T1:0 kg·hm~(-2);T2:75 kg·hm~(-2);T3:150 kg·hm~(-2);T4:225 kg·hm~(-2);T5:300 kg·hm~(-2); T6:375 kg·hm~(-2)),研究其对还田玉米秸秆腐解及养分释放特征的影响。研究表明:还田玉米秸秆的腐解主要发生在前90 d,在此期间玉米秸秆腐解较快,T1～T6处理的玉米秸秆腐解率分别为37.3%、40.3%、44.8%、45.0%、50.8%、48.4%,以T5处理为最高,处理间差异显著(P0.05);同时,T1～T6处理的玉米秸秆碳、氮释放率分别为48.2%～56.6%、33.8%～44.4%,T5处理下秸秆的碳、氮释放率均显著高于其他处理(P0.05),而秸秆磷、钾的释放率分别为43.1%～49.2%、90.5%～93.0%,处理间无显著性差异。还田150 d后,玉米秸秆的腐解率为52.7%～55.8%,养分释放表现为KCPN。综上所述,连续施氮可以显著促进还田玉米秸秆前期的腐解及碳氮的释放,但对磷钾的释放无明显影响,当施氮量为300 kg·hm~(-2)时还田玉米秸秆的腐解效果最好。     

Forecast skill for predicting distribution shifts: A retrospective experiment for marine fishes in the Eastern Bering Sea

Forecasting distribution shifts under novel environmental conditions is a major task for ecologists and conservationists. Researchers forecast distribution shifts using several tools including: predicting from an empirical relationship between a summary of distribution (population centroid) and annual time series (“annual regression,” AR); or fitting a habitat‐envelope model to historical distribution and forecasting given predictions of future environmental conditions (“habitat envelope,” HE). However, surprisingly little research has estimated forecast skill by fitting to historical data, forecasting distribution shifts and comparing forecasts with subsequent observations of distribution shifts. I demonstrate the important role of retrospective skill testing by forecasting poleward movement over 1‐, 2‐ or 3‐year periods for 20 fish and crab species in the Eastern Bering Sea and comparing forecasts with observed shifts. I specifically introduce an alternative vector‐autoregressive spatio‐temporal (VAST) forecasting model, which can include species temperature responses, and compare skill for AR, HE and VAST forecasts. Results show that the HE forecast has 30%–43% greater variance than predicting that future distribution is identical to the estimated distribution in the final year (a “persistence” forecast). Meanwhile, the AR explains 2%–6% and VAST explains 8%–25% of variance in poleward movement, and both have better performance than a persistence forecast. HE and AR both generate forecast intervals that are too narrow, while VAST models with or without temperature have appropriate width for forecast intervals. Retrospective skill testing for more regions and taxa should be used as a test bed to guide future improvements in methods for forecasting distribution shifts.     

The effect of random and density‐dependent variation in sampling efficiency on variance of abundance estimates from fishery surveys

Abundance indices (AIs) provide information on population abundance and trends over time, while AI variance (AIV) provides information on reliability or quality of the AI. AIV is an important output from surveys and is commonly used in formal assessments of survey quality, in survey comparison studies, and in stock assessments. However, uncertainty in AIV estimates is poorly understood and studies on the precision and bias in survey AIV estimates are lacking. Typically, AIV estimates are “design based” and are derived from sampling theory under some aspect of randomized samples. Inference on population density in these cases can be confounded by unaccounted process errors such as those due to variable sampling efficiency (q). Here, we simulated fish distribution and surveys to assess the effect of q and variance in q on design‐based estimates of AIV. Simulation results show that the bias and precision of AIV depend on the mean q and variance in q. We conclude that to fully evaluate the reliability of AI, both observation error and variability in q must be accounted for when estimating AIV. A decrease in mean q and an increase in the variance in q results in increased bias and decreased precision in survey AIV estimates. These effects are likely small in surveys with mean q ≥ 1. However, for surveys where q ≤ 0.5, these effects can be large. Regardless of the survey type, AIV estimates can be improved with knowledge of q and variance in q.     

基于GAM的长江口鱼类资源时空分布及影响因素

根据2006至2017年长江口及其邻近海域鱼类资源调查,运用广义加性模型研究长江口鱼类资源密度与环境因子之间的关系,并对2017年鱼类资源密度的时空分布进行预测。结果显示,春夏秋冬四个季节最佳GAM偏差解释率分别为69.6%、55.9%、51.4%和47.4%,交叉验证回归线斜率的平均效应为0.62～0.88。盐度、水温和溶解氧是影响长江口鱼类资源密度的主要环境影响因子且在不同季节对鱼类资源密度有不同的影响机制。总体上,在春、夏、秋季,盐度与鱼类资源密度之间存在正向相关性;在夏、秋、冬季,水温对鱼类资源密度有显著影响,在秋季与鱼类资源密度之间存在正向相关性;在春、秋、冬季,溶解氧对鱼类资源密度有显著影响,在冬季与鱼类资源密度之间存在正向线性相关。研究表明,2017年夏季鱼类资源密度较高;在长江口南支的自然延伸水域存在鱼类资源密度的相对低值,在崇明岛向海自然延伸方向水域存在鱼类资源密度的相对高值。后续研究将对长江口鱼类资源进行不同生态类型区分,以期更加准确地掌握影响各生态类型鱼类时空分布的环境因素及其时空分布信息。